Sarah A. Topol：为什么中国在中东最受欢迎？

中国在中东地区的利害关系日益增加，其在该地区购入的石油和销售的商品都超出包括美国在内的其他国家。那么中国为何还要支持联合国对伊朗的制裁呢？

　　中国政府需要这里的石油推动现代化建设，还需要这里广大的市场推销 “中国制造”的商品。二者要想得兼，地区政局的稳定不可或缺。

　　过去，中国很大程度上依赖美国维持中东地区的安全，然而北京方面正在对华盛顿失去信心。

　　“特别是伊拉克战争以来，中国人越发质疑，是否（美国）政策本身在某些方面正对该地区的稳定构成威胁。”新美国基金会高级研究员弗莱恩特·莱弗里特说。

　　造成的结果，是中国越来越多地介入这一地区，尤其在伊朗--中国11%的石油进口从该国获取。据莱弗里特先生观察，中国正日益关切“被其视为美国在该地区过分的单边主义行径”。如此，中国才会对美国希望通过联合国安理会制裁伊朗感兴趣，希望能对美国有所约束。以下是一些有关中国在中东地区目标的问题：

　　中国扮演何种经济角色？

　　中国与中东的贸易额在过去五年内几乎翻了一番。今年，中国取代美国成为对这一地区的头号出口国。

　　中国对包括土耳其在内的中东国家，2009年实现出口价值570亿美元，比2005年增加了280亿美元。去年中国从中东进口了价值610亿美元的商品，比2005年增加了340亿美元。同期中国对外出口总量由7600亿美元升至1.2万亿，增长58%。

　　中国与中东地区的贸易增长不仅表现在与石油相关的行业。“那些小商小贩，在两地间往返，开店摆摊，进行商品买卖。”苏格兰皇家银行驻香港的经济学家及《新丝绸之路》一书的作者本·辛芬德费尔说。

　　此外，他说他还注意到中国建筑公司在该地区赢得的项目合同显著增加。中资银行一如既往地通过借贷方式对这些项目进行支持，因而中国公司不仅能带来他们自己的廉价劳工和原料，还能自己解决信贷问题。“他们提供的建筑服务比其他竞争者便宜不少，还往往带着自己的银行。” 辛芬德费尔说。

　　中国要消耗中东多少的能源？

　　中国是中东最大的石油买家，海湾国家超过十分之一的原油都出口中国。它同时也是伊朗最大的客户，买走该国23%的石油。

　　中国在中东石油采购方面已然超过美国--其日进口量为194万桶，高出美国14%。以目前的速度，2030年中国在石油进口总量上也将赶超美国。预计接下来的五年内，中国石油进口的年增速将达50万桶。

　　对美国的意义

　　中东各国政府之所以喜欢与中国合作，是因为中国不会强迫他们做这做那。当美国忙活着推进中东民主改革，中国人只是单纯地想在这里做生意。

　　“我们做生意的方式和美国不同，不会一味告诉你怎么做才能实现民主，如何对待妇女，” 莱弗里特模仿中国的口吻说道。

　　然而中国不会与美国在军事上发生竞争。“中东地区对美国安全而言至关重要；而中国绝不会为出手保护这些国家，” 美国战略与国际研究中心中东计划负责人乔恩·奥尔特曼说。

　　为何中国投票赞成联合国制裁伊朗？

　　中国非常担心伊朗一旦拥有核武器，将引来土耳其等他国的效仿，从而在中东地区掀起一场军事竞赛。这将危及中国的两大原油来源地--沙特阿拉伯和伊朗，二者分别占中国石油进口的20%和11%。

　　另一方面，鉴于中美关系目前仍是中国外交政策中最为重要的因素，北京方面本来也不想激怒华盛顿。此外，投票反对制裁也将损害中国作为全球舞台上负责任国家的形象。

　　然而，经过制裁决议前长达五个月的谈判，中国外交官确保此举不会限制外国公司在伊朗能源领域的投资。由于大部分西方石油公司的缺席，中国公司已成为伊朗石油工业最重要的投资和技术来源，北京也热心保护其在伊朗的巨额投资。

　　中国会为了伊朗抛弃美国么？

　　中国目前是伊朗最大的贸易伙伴，其双边贸易在过去五年中几乎翻番（从2005年的100亿美元上下到2009年的2000亿美元）。

　　然而，这还不到中美贸易额的十分之一。2009年中国对美出口总额共计2210亿美元，进口总额为770亿美元。“中国要是为保住中伊关系而牺牲中美关系，那简直就是疯了。它只是想兼顾同两国的关系，” 奥特曼先生说。“如果能使美国承担起整个中东地区的安全重任，而中国依然能从中渔利并进一步介入该地区，那么中国就是用5%的成本取得了95%的回报。”（特派记者彼得·福特对此报道也有贡献）

英文原文：

　　Q&A: Why China has become the Middle East's favorite customer

　　By Sarah A. Topol, / Correspondent

　　posted July 13, 2010 at 11:54 am EDT

　　Cairo -

　　The Chinese government needs oil to fuel its modernization and markets to sell its "Made in China" brand. Regional stability is crucial to getting both.

　　In the past, China has largely relied on the United States to maintain security in the Middle East, but Beijing is losing faith in Washington.

　　"Particularly since the Iraq war, the Chinese are more and more willing to sort of question whether ... [US] policy itself isn't becoming, in some ways, a threat to stability in the region," says Flynt Leverett, senior fellow at the New America Foundation.

　　As a result, China has become more involved in the region, particularly in Iran, from which China gets 11 percent of its oil imports. Mr. Leverett sees China becoming more concerned with "what they see as excessive US unilateralism in the region." Thus its interest in funneling the US desire for Iran sanctions through the United Nations Security Council, which would place some constraints on the US. A few questions regarding China's regional aims:

　　What's China's economic role?

　　Chinese trade with the Middle East has roughly doubled in the past five years. This year, China replaced the US as the top exporter to the region.

　　Chinese exports to the Middle East, including Turkey, were worth $57 billion in 2009, up from $28 billion in 2005. Chinese imports from the region stood at $61 billion, up from $34 billion in 2005. China's global exports for the same period grew 58 percent - from $760 billion to $1.2 trillion.

　　This rise in trade with the Middle East is not just oil-related. "It is small- time traders with their own shops or street stalls who are traveling between the two regions to either buy goods or sell goods," says Ben Simpfendorfer, of the Royal Bank of Scotland in Hong Kong and author of "The New Silk Road."

　　In addition, he says he's seen a marked increase in Chinese construction companies winning contracts across the region. Chinese banks continue lending to finance projects, so Chinese companies are able to bring not only their own labor and materials, but their own credit. "They're providing construction services that are at cheap prices compared to their competitors. They bring often the Chinese banks along with them," says Mr. Simpfendorfer.

　　How much Mideast energy does China consume?

　　China is the largest importer of Middle Eastern oil, buying just over a tenth of the crude oil exported by Gulf states. It's also Iran's top customer, taking 23 percent of Tehran's oil.

　　Already, China has surpassed US oil purchases in the Middle East - importing 1.94 million barrels per day (b.p.d.), or 14 percent more than the US. At current rates, China will overtake the US in oil imports by 2030. Annual Chinese oil imports are predicted to increase by 0.5 million b.p.d. for the next five years.

　　What does this mean for the US?

　　Middle Eastern governments generally prefer working with China because it doesn't tell them what to do. While the US pushes reforms, China does business.

　　"When we do business with you, unlike the United States, we aren't going to tell you about how you're supposed to democratize or how you're supposed to treat women," says Leverett, paraphrasing China's pitch.

　　But the Chinese cannot compete with America militarily. "The US is consequential in terms of security; there's nothing the Chinese will do to secure these countries," says Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

　　Why did China vote for UN sanctions on Iran?

　　Beijing is genuinely worried that a nuclear-armed Iran will spark an arms race in the Middle East, encouraging other nations such as Turkey to follow suit. That could endanger the flow of oil from two of China's top sources of crude: Saudi Arabia and Iran, which account for 20 percent and 11 percent of its oil imports, respectively.

　　Neither did Beijing want to irritate Washington, given that its ties with the US are by far the most important element in its foreign policy. Voting against the sanctions would have damaged the image China wants to project as a responsible player on the global stage.

　　Still, Chinese diplomats ensured during the five months of negotiations that preceded the sanctions resolution that the measure would not restrict foreign investment in Iran's energy sector. Absent most Western oil companies, Chinese firms have become the Iranian oil industry's most important source of investment and technology, and Beijing is keen to protect its huge investments in Iran.

　　Will China forsake the US for Iran?

　　China is now Iran's largest trading partner, and bilateral trade has almost doubled in the past five years (from around $10 billion in 2005 to more than $20 billion in 2009).

　　Still, that's less than 10 percent of China's trade with the US. In 2009, China's exports to the US totaled $221 billion, while imports stood at $77 billion. "The Chinese would be crazy to trade the US relationship for an Iranian relationship. What they want is to have a relationship with both," says Mr. Alterman. "[China] can get 95 percent of what they want at 5 percent of the cost if they can ... have the US do all the heavy lifting on security issues in the Middle East ... and let China reap the benefits and integrate itself."

　　Staff writer Peter Ford contributed from Beijing

(责编：Beatles)